The idea comes from Scratch wanting revenge for killing Latch. Saul knows Scratch has Lizzy, meaning if he offers a trade he can get his girlfriend back.
And he really doesn't even need to "trade" Pegs for Lizzy per se. He just needs to let Scratch know where Pegs is right now (with no defense other than Datu and Victor). If Saul has been listening in on the walkies, he would have a pretty good idea that Burt/Kalani are no longer at LAX, and Victor might be a pimp, but he isn't going to be able to take out an entire squad of Mallers before they finally get him.
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