Look I've never been quite convinced of the "michael's telling this all retrospectively". I certainly think it's possible - likely even, given how much KC plays with tenses - after all, who says "we were stronger now" - but there's no real evidence for it.

People always reference "Saul was a good soldier" in s1 without remembering the contextualisation that Michael was explaining that despite that he hasn't been promoted, due to his insubordination. What I mean is that yes you could also make some case for a double reading, but there is very little evidence for it, and all it is is a hunch.

Certainly there is some element of retrospectivity - that's how it's been structured from day one. And yeah I think Michael will conclude it at the end writing at least SOMETHING down. But a lot of this I think was written on the run, more or less a day after most of these events happened.

So: I am prepared to admit that the starting entry of season 4 can be an end of season 4 retrospective - michael's dying or alone or whatever. But I firmly believe that the original comments in s1 are more or less contemporary with their events.

Ofc KC's always been ambiguous at best, letting us play these mind games with each other before finally revealing how it plays out - we're supposed to have these arguments, that's how he's written it. I can't wait to find out what happens, if Michael fears death or not, if it does come to him, and how these journals pan out.

As a side note - Burt still needs to write down what happened in Chapter 23-24. Perhaps the fact it's five months later is why he was so "blah blah blah"ish and forgetful in Ch23? Who knows, not sure if KC thought that far ahead but not surprised if he did!