Speculation: How long would it have taken....

[scbubba]

How long do you think it would have taken for the Zeds to get to Ft Irwin if the chopper never went back to LA?

The precipitous event that triggered Red Winter was the Advanced Little One (ALO) hitching the ride with the returning chopper. That got one to Boulder and the evac of Boulder got them to Irwin.

Given the location of Irwin and the time that had elapsed (about 3 months since Zday when Michael & crew arrived and then 5 more months before Red Winter), was it a foregone conclusion that the Zeds would have gotten there eventually? Or not?

The question popped in my head thinking about some out of the way places in this country that aren't near the big cities at all. How many of them are basically Zed free at this point in the story? Or is Irwin/Boulder an anomaly in the WA universe?

What say you?

[FelixTheLastJumper]

Scbubba, you have completely stumped me, I have ideas that lead me nowhere. what is happening outside of this universe? The norm-zos were world wide, but so could the smart ones, the runners maybe, they didn't show up right away, and jumpers were probably a failed experiment (but oh how I love them so). The possibility also remains that there are zos smart enough to create other than just our special boys.
to the point on whether they make it to Fort Irwin, i would say sometime in late spring early summer, over take it probably never. the fort and bolder can take small groups it's only after the numbers became unbearable did it start to fall, and that was because one got into boulder before it did Irwin. if Irwin had encountered it first they would have had time to warn, and better equip boulder.

[scbubba]

Thinking about this topic again as I listen to some Season 3 stuff.

I forgot that both Boulder and Fort Irwin were dealing/had been dealing with Zeds before the Red Winter stuff happened. So the Zed spread had already gotten there. It was the efficiency of the Little Ones that turned the tide against human kind there.

But it brings me back to some of the initial question: what are the rural parts of America like 3-6 months after Z-day?

Does it make a difference if they are closer to/further from major roadways (e.g. interstates)?

I know we don't have definitive info via the show on this, but it got me thinking about some places I know of and how they might be affected if a situation like this....

[LiamKerrington]

[QUOTE=scbubba;57314]But it brings me back to some of the initial question: what are the rural parts of America like 3-6 months after Z-day?

Does it make a difference if they are closer to/further from major roadways (e.g. interstates)?

I know we don't have definitive info via the show on this, but it got me thinking about some places I know of and how they might be affected if a situation like this.... /QUOTE]

I think we can conclude a couple of things from what was mentioned on the show.

First of all: When Pegs crashlanded the banane near the farm, we also learned that even in remote areas like these zeehs lurk in the dark.
Then: Considering the location of Fort Irwin and the small towns surrounding it, it might be anything else but a stretch if you compare such small towns with any other rural area.
Finally: Kimmet givet us an insight about how quickly the zeehs spread over all of the USA. I would imagine that almost any police -, security - or military service was in radio-contact with any other next higher instance - for the sake of coordination, asking for support, asking for food, water, medics, and ammo etc. Therefore it should be able to draw a detailed map about when what exact location fell under the constant attacks of them zeehs.

Yes. We have no information if there might be other areas on the territory of the US which might be safe from what happened everywhere else. But with all the various means of communication and of mobility (cars, busses, trains, helicopers, planes) such a place must have been absolutely remote and cut off from the world in order to have avoided what has come to pass in so many other areas ... Maybe remote areas might have withheld the threat a little longer - but not much.

All these things do not account for slow turners ...

All the best!
Liam

[scbubba]

I think we can conclude a couple of things from what was mentioned on the show.

First of all: When Pegs crashlanded the banane near the farm, we also learned that even in remote areas like these zeehs lurk in the dark.
Then: Considering the location of Fort Irwin and the small towns surrounding it, it might be anything else but a stretch if you compare such small towns with any other rural area.
Finally: Kimmet givet us an insight about how quickly the zeehs spread over all of the USA. I would imagine that almost any police -, security - or military service was in radio-contact with any other next higher instance - for the sake of coordination, asking for support, asking for food, water, medics, and ammo etc. Therefore it should be able to draw a detailed map about when what exact location fell under the constant attacks of them zeehs.

Yes. We have no information if there might be other areas on the territory of the US which might be safe from what happened everywhere else. But with all the various means of communication and of mobility (cars, busses, trains, helicopers, planes) such a place must have been absolutely remote and cut off from the world in order to have avoided what has come to pass in so many other areas ... Maybe remote areas might have withheld the threat a little longer - but not much.

All these things do not account for slow turners ...

All the best!
Liam

Good points. Let's leave the slow turner thing alone for the moment....

I need to do a quick look at the map and see where the crash landing was and where Fort Irwin is and see how they are situated relative to population centers. I get the feeling that they are very near major traffic areas and not that far from population centers (at least the farm landing spot).

Watching major disasters here in the US unfold over the past few decades, I've seen some very good coordination and some very bad coordination between agencies, localities, military, etc. So I don't know that we would have a really clear picture outside of the major population areas. That is, small town USA would probably lose contact with nearest large area as the big place fell. Then the little place may not have good comms with anybody else to get help from. And the big places probably wouldn't send much out officially as they would have a lot to deal with.

So, I think that many small towns would be well away from the zeehs at the outbreak assuming that whatever caused all this didn't erupt nearby (fault lines, contaminated water, solar flares, etc). There are some pretty remote places here in the US where it takes many hours of driving to get to from major cities. Again, dropping the slow turner part for the moment, it sounds like "infected" people wouldn't probably make it out there. At least not for a long time....

But then, introduce smart ones and the equation changes, perhaps. Depending on whether they remember things from their pre-zeeh life or not, some of them might decide to head out to some of these places.

In the end, I'm just going to assume that there are some bastions of humanity in different places in the world at the end of Season 3. If that ends up mattering to the show, Kc will clue us in with the Season 4 episodes. If not, we can still ponder it....

[Witch_Doctor]

Kimmet mentions that some of the teams out in the field were doing rescue missions and that the last group was from Arizona just prior to Michael's arrival. So, there are at least 'pockets' of survivors who were able to live as long as Michael et al.

Something about the speed of the outbreak that bugs me. Escape from hot zones via highways would, of course, bottle neck. The bottle necks would, of course, be fertile infection zones. But the speed at which the infection spreads would be limited to human foot-speed minus the time it takes to catch a person, fight and infect, rinse and repeat. It would be slower than the Olympic Torch Relay. Also, the choke point of a bottle neck can block the spread on the side opposite of the infection. On non-infected side, where traffic is speeding up, survivors can still get away in cars. The laggards would still be vulnerable, as they are moving slower and will likely face another bottle neck further down the road. This would slow the speed the infection travels even slower because the Zs would have to stop feeding and catch up with the laggards. The best image to visualize this is that of an earthworm inching along the ground. At this rate fewer and fewer laggards get turned and eventually the escapees completely out run the infection. This would create an isolation zone from the infection BUT as more population centers get infected AND more people get onto the highways, any advantage gained earlier would be steadily loss. However, it would still slow the infection.

Slow turners would allow travel by air; thus an infected person on a plane wouldn't turn everyone an cause a plane crash. Yet, since 9-11, airline cockpits have been secured so pilots might be able to survive long enough to transports regular Zs across the country and/or world.

Any thoughts? I'm sure there must be a CDC simulation of something like this. Any minute Cabbagepatch will post maps and diagrams.

[LiamKerrington]

Hi there,

these are very good thoughts, Witch_Dochtor, you raise there.

About the 'pockets'. Considering the time that the contact with the East Coast broke, it is pretty likely that the major spreading over the whole of the USA took place during the first two days, but it 'remained' within the reach of the metropols and giant cities; from there things spread into the thinner populated areas.

Everything you say about the bottlenecks and the flight I would not want to challenge, because the logic behind what you say is strikling. But you forget one major source of travelling: the train. Imagine a train full with people trying to flee a city for another city ... And at least one or two zeehs were able to catch on the train. This would be mayhem nd panic extra-large ... For whatever reason the train does not stop between the cities, but it rushes right into any bigger city and is just stopped accidentally by hitting another train or dead-end; this would release some of the zeehs from the train, and they could go on with their rampage in a new town.

Also we should not forget: We had several hotspots, not just one. With multiple hotspots in the USA - as I understood it from the various sources on the WA-show these were all around the USA - the spreading is actually without a single direction - it is like watering a huge garden from different directions; this works much faster then with just one garden hose ...

Still: not even two days for the complete area of the USA - roughly spoken-, and about a week when things started to collapse big-time.

All the best!
Liam

[LiamKerrington]

Watching major disasters here in the US unfold over the past few decades, I've seen some very good coordination and some very bad coordination between agencies, localities, military, etc. So I don't know that we would have a really clear picture outside of the major population areas. That is, small town USA would probably lose contact with nearest large area as the big place fell. Then the little place may not have good comms with anybody else to get help from. And the big places probably wouldn't send much out officially as they would have a lot to deal with.

So, I think that many small towns would be well away from the zeehs at the outbreak assuming that whatever caused all this didn't erupt nearby (fault lines, contaminated water, solar flares, etc). There are some pretty remote places here in the US where it takes many hours of driving to get to from major cities. Again, dropping the slow turner part for the moment, it sounds like "infected" people wouldn't probably make it out there. At least not for a long time....

Now, that is the benefit for you: I have a lot of trouble thinking of the size of and the distances within the USA. I hardly can imagine how long things would take.
Maybe the smaller cities had some kind of Jericho-experience for quite some time, until the first refugees or even military-services showed up. Maybe there were plans catastrophe-rescue-plans activated which made many people leave and thus make them move into their grave.
But on the other hand: What, if these areas really were left alone by them zeehs? We know that zeehs react to certain noise and the smell of humans. And if smaller cities, towns or communities are far away enough, how likely would they get in touch with the zeeh-threat? And why would they leave their areas?

As Witch_Doctor stressed it: The military-services had plenty of rescue missions. Therefore it is a safe assumption that even the population from remote areas was hit. Maybe not within the first days or even weak, but eventually some time.

Besides: What, if remote areas had "hotspots" as well?

All the best!
Liam

[Witch_Doctor]

You're absolutely right about the trains. Also, the ADLOs were able to follow the convoy from Boulder to to Fort Irwin somehow (1000 miles or 1609 Km). They could have hitched a ride. Here is a comparison of the continental USA to Western Europe (Is it still proper to say Western Europe?) map-compare-size-econ.jpg

[LiamKerrington]

You're absolutely right about the trains. Also, the ADLOs were able to follow the convoy from Boulder to to Fort Irwin somehow (1000 miles or 1609 Km). They could have hitched a ride. Here is a comparison of the continental USA to Western Europe (Is it still proper to say Western Europe?) map-compare-size-econ.jpg

offtopic:
Since the chosen map overs Western and Middle Europe and leaves out most of Eastern Europe I think it is alright to speak of Western Europe.
Europe as a term is very ambigious, because there are several different meanings - the continent, the European Union, other European communities depeding on various treatieses ... Hard to grab.

All the best!
Liam