I said the War. Not the overall conflict.
Burt fired the first shot in the overall conflict between
the Tower and
the Mallers. The War is accepted as the contents of
Chapter 12. Hence why the chapter is called "The War."
The stolen property is what caused the conflict, not Burt's dead eye shot on the mirror. And the shot was taken only after an acceptable trade could not be established for the release of the Tanker. Had Burt killed
Latch or
Scratch and leaving the other alive to go back to the Mallers would fulfill your scenario of Burt's shot causing the escalation by using only force. Remember, the only part of this story that
Durai knows is the theft because Scratch lied to him and pinned it on
Charlie. The only thing that matters to Durai (other than wanting the Tower to live in) is the theft.